I recently attended the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business 2026 Spring Housing Forum, where Ryan Price, Chief Economist for Virginia Realtors, shared an update on current economic conditions and what they mean for Virginia’s housing market.

The message was not all good news, but it was useful news, especially for anyone who owns a home, is thinking about buying, or is simply trying to understand where our local market may be heading.

Virginia’s economy is showing signs of strain. According to the information shared during the forum, first-quarter sales are down, and one of the reasons being cited is the impact of federal government downsizing. 

At the same time, Virginia is facing slower economic growth. We also heard that Virginia is experiencing historically weak GDP conditions, and the job market is shrinking in both Northern Virginia and Richmond. Consumer spending is still up overall, but much of that spending appears to be driven by higher-income households. That distinction matters because it tells us that the economy may look stronger on paper than it feels for many middle-income households.

Despite those economic headwinds, the housing market is not frozen. In fact, Virginia has seen its strongest start to closed home sales since 2022. That may surprise people, especially with mortgage rates still much higher than the rates many current homeowners have on their existing mortgages. A recent Virginia housing report also noted that March sales showed continued momentum, with Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Ryan Price pointing to stronger demand while also cautioning that rates and economic conditions could still affect the market ahead. 

One reason buyers may be re-entering the market is that mortgage rates have eased slightly. Rates are currently around 6.3%, compared with approximately 6.8% this same time last year. That is not a dramatic drop, but in housing, even small rate movements can affect monthly payments and buyer confidence.

Home prices are also beginning to stabilize. Statewide, Virginia home prices are up only about 1.2% year to date, according to the forum data. That is a meaningful shift from the rapid appreciation we saw over the past several years. But the details are important: the lower end of the price spectrum is seeing some price decreases, while the higher end of the market is still seeing price growth.

That tells us affordability is still the central issue. Buyers at lower and moderate price points are more sensitive to interest rates, insurance costs, taxes, and monthly payment pressure. Higher-income buyers, on the other hand, often have more flexibility, more cash, or more ability to absorb higher payments. This is one reason the market can feel very different depending on the price range.

Statewide, homes are still moving. The median days on market is currently 16 days, which shows that well-priced homes are continuing to attract buyers. This is not the overheated market we saw a few years ago, but it is also not a slow market. It is more selective. Buyers are watching value carefully, and sellers need to be realistic, strategic, and prepared.

One piece of good news for homebuyers and builders is a recent federal policy change. As of April 2026, HUD and USDA rescinded the 2024 final determination that had tied certain FHA- and USDA-backed new construction to stricter 2021 energy-efficiency standards. HUD stated that FHA and USDA loan programs will now follow the standards that were in place before that 2024 determination.  In plain English, this change could help reduce some of the upfront costs of building new homes, which is an important step toward making homeownership more attainable, especially for first-time buyers who are entering the market at an average 40 years old!

For homeowners, the takeaway is this: values are stabilizing, but demand has not disappeared. Homes that are priced correctly, prepared well, and marketed strongly are still selling. For buyers, the takeaway is that the market may be offering a little more breathing room than it did in recent years, especially in certain price ranges, but affordability remains tight.

The real estate market is shifting, not crashing, not booming, but adjusting. And in a market like this, local knowledge matters more than ever.

Whether you are thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply trying to understand what your home may be worth in today’s market, this is a good time to stay informed and make decisions based on real data, not headlines.